Space and Physics
PUBLISHED
If you want to see Northern Lights, the best time for the next several years is probably now. We can’t predict space weather beyond a couple of days' range, but there are several factors that make March 2026 the safest bet to spot this celestial activity until the 2030s.
The rest of this article is behind a paywall. Please sign in or subscribe to access the full content.The Sun Is Going Quiet
Our star has an 11-year long cycle of activity. We count them from minimum to the next minimum, and it is during the peak, the maximum, when the Sun is most active, that we get the most intense aurorae. This is an average, and it is perfectly possible to get powerful events close to the minimum. Take, for example, the solar flares of September 2017, the most powerful of Solar Cycle 24, and just two years before the solar minimum.
The current cycle, Solar Cycle 25, peaked in October 2024, and it has been a very active one. The coronal mass ejections of May 2024 created spectacular global aurorae as far south as Mexico, and even affected the atmosphere and the robotic explorers around Mars.
We had lots of powerful flares, radio blackouts, the works. Now the cycle is winding down as we head back towards the minimum. Experts measure the level of activity of the Sun by counting the number of sunspots – darker, cooler, more magnetically active regions – on its surface. Just a few weeks ago, we had multiple days without spots for the first time in years.
Around the solar maximum, the poles of the Sun also flip, a process that is quite chaotic and protracted. That is also completed now, another hallmark of the Sun moving into the quieter portion of this cycle. The next minimum is expected to take place in 2030.
The Equinox Effect
The closer we get to 2030, the smaller our chance for spectacular aurorae, also known as the Northern and Southern Lights. But not all months are the same in terms of chances. It has been known for a long time that, on average, around the equinoxes, there are more aurorae.
The reason for this is found in the alignment between the axis of the Earth and the interplanetary magnetic field carried by the solar wind. This has been mostly explained by the Russell-McPherron effect, although there are more subtleties when it comes to the 22-year-long magnetic cycle of the Sun, as well as its day-to-day activities.
During the equinox, the Earth’s axis is not pointing towards the Sun, which makes it easier for the magnetic interaction from the solar winds to match our planet’s magnetosphere. The charged particles in the solar wind penetrate our atmosphere in higher numbers, leading to more aurorae.
So, March 2026 is the last best equinox before the minimum to see some really bright aurorae, with the next maximum and peak aurorae around 2035-6. Still, it also depends if the Sun wants to do its part. You can check the short and long-term aurora forecast here.
