Nature
PUBLISHED
The super El Niño that's currently rocking the world is now the strongest on record – and there’s still much more to come.
Japan's Meteorological Agency said on Friday that the deepening El Niño phenomenon is the strongest intensity they've ever recorded, with temperatures in the tropical Pacific up to 4.0°C (7.2°F) above normal.
This smashes the previous record of 3.6°C (6.48°F), set in December 1997 amid the most disastrous El Niño on record.
There's more to come
Meanwhile, temperatures across the shimmering surface of the tropical Pacific are forecast to rise over the next few months, another sure sign that the El Niño event is only getting stronger.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday that El Niño will continue to intensify through October and November before reaching its peak in December.
It’s very likely it will then continue to rage through the start of 2027, they added.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,” Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO, said in a statement.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a climate phenomenon that starts with rising sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific around the equator, but goes on to have a global impact on weather and climate.
This involves above-average temperatures for much of the globe, while bringing shifted rainfall patterns to certain parts of the world.
“El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface - which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured (as with 2024),” Saulo told the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok.
“The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release,” she said.
The world is in uncharted territory
El Niño events occur haphazardly every two to seven years. 2026 is one of those years – and it’s a big one.
Earlier this year, climate scientists were blown away by how quickly sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific were rising, describing it as “uncharted territory”, and that startling trend is set to continue for the rest of the year.
The WMO says sea-surface temperature anomalies across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific jumped from +1.6 °C (+2.9 °F) above normal in June 2026 to +2.5 °C (+4.5 °F) in August.
Slightly differing from Japan's forecast, the WMO predicts it to hit about +3.7 °C (+6.7 °F) over the course of October to December. Nevertheless, that would make this year's event the strongest on record.
How will El Niño impact the rest of 2026?
All of this is pretty worrying because El Niño is already having a profound impact on the planet.
Earth had the hottest August on record, with global sea surface temperature reaching an all-time high. The contiguous US just had the hottest September since records began, while the UK clocked the hottest summer ever recorded.
Some of this was driven by climate change, and there may be some degree of normal variation in the mix, but El Niño very likely played an important role in the extremes.
Wetter conditions are more likely across the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia and coastal East Asia, northern parts of the Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America south of 45°N, and southeastern South America. This raises the risk of flooding, landslides, and other weather-related disasters.
Meanwhile, drier conditions are expected over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America and parts of the Caribbean, and northwestern South America. This sets the stage for drought and more wildfires.
The world has already had a taste of these extremes, but if these latest forecasts are accurate, the worst is still to come.
