Nature
PUBLISHED
It’s been strangely quiet in the Atlantic this summer. Hurricane season kicked off in June, but as of mid-September, the region has yet to see a single hurricane, with no tropical cyclone activity brewing on the horizon.
As of September 11, there’s no sign of any hurricanes developing in the next seven days, making it the latest date without an Atlantic hurricane forming since the satellite era.
The previous record is September 11, set in both 2002 and 2013, which we’re almost certainly about to blast past by a significant margin.
While full-blown hurricanes haven't been cooked up yet, 2026 has seen five tropical storms: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly – which occurred just two days after the death of the legendary Dolly Parton – and Edouard. They all brought heavy rains and strong winds to the Gulf Coast region, but most were relatively short-lived, and all wussed out before they could evolve into hurricanes.
Compared to 2005, this year is ridiculous
The year of 2005 is the sharpest contrast on record. By early July, the Atlantic had already produced four named storms, marking a record-smashing early season.
It went on to become the most aggressive season since reliable records began, with a total of 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 major hurricanes, including the infamous Katrina, which killed nearly 1,400 people and caused $125 billion in economic damage.
How the rest of 2026 might play out
This year's lackluster hurricane season in the Atlantic was forecast months ago by meteorologists. Back in April, storm scientists at Colorado State University (CSU) predicted a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, as did NOAA’s National Weather Service in May.
In August, NOAA updated its forecast to suggest that 2026 could only witness two to six hurricanes, and zero to two major hurricanes.
In other words, there's a good chance 2026 will not see any major hurricanes in the Atlantic at all.
Why 2026 is no ordinary year
September 10 is usually the peak of Atlantic hurricane season. In an average year, the first named storm forms around mid to late June, the first hurricane tends to form in early to mid-August, and the first major hurricane forms in late August or early September.
This is no ordinary year, however. The world is currently in the midst of an incredibly powerful El Niño, a weather phenomenon that’s known to dampen hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
This is because El Niño warms the Pacific and, in turn, strengthens high westerly winds over the Atlantic, creating wind shear that tears apart hurricanes before they can organize. It also makes the atmosphere more stable, putting another downer on the rambunctious thunderstorms needed for hurricanes to form.
“When El Niño emerges, it usually becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity, and this El Niño continues to get stronger every month,” Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, said in August.
“Compared to a mature El Niño, other mechanisms play a smaller role in determining the number and intensity of tropical storms in the Atlantic basin,” Rosencrans added.
El Niño tends to turn down the dial on Atlantic hurricanes, but it can enhance storm development over in the Pacific. NOAA’s National Weather Service has predicted a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season in the central Pacific basin this year, with just a 10 percent chance of a below-normal season.
All that stormy energy has got to go somewhere, after all.
