Space and Physics
PUBLISHED
A chunk from a SpaceX rocket is going to slam into the Moon this summer. Bill Gray of Project Pluto has used its astronomy tracking software and publicly available observations to work out that a leftover piece of Falcon 9 is going to impact the surface of the Moon on August 5, 2026, at 2:44 am EDT.
The rest of this article is behind a paywall. Please sign in or subscribe to access the full content.The impact is expected to be around the rim of Einstein crater, although the precise position might still change due to solar radiation pressure. Sunlight can push things around (as we have seen with solar sail approaches), and while the force is very weak on objects not optimized to use it, it does have an impact.
This piece of junk comes from the launch of Blue Ghost, a private lunar mission from Firefly Aerospace that successfully landed on the Moon’s Mare Crisium region on March 2, 2025. It was the first fully successful commercial soft landing on the Moon. The space junk is part of the Falcon 9’s upper stage, and it is labeled 2025-010D.
The chunk of rocket is expected to slam into the moon at 2.43 kilometers per second (5,400 miles per hour). It is unlikely that it will be seen from Earth. It is currently expected to happen on the limb of the near side, but the Moon will be in the waning phase, and the area will be fully illuminated. Neither condition is ideal for observation from Earth.
What we are likely to see is the aftermath. When a Chinese rocket impacted the Moon in March 2022, its peculiar double crater was spotted by NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. In that case it was suspected that two heavy extremities (payload on one side and engine on another) might have led to the formation of the twin crater, one of 18 meters (59 feet) in diameter and one of 16 meters (52 feet). Whatever happens, though, won’t be a big deal.
“Well... I wouldn't really worry about it very much. If anything, I'd be more concerned with the many similar objects that don't hit the moon and hit the earth's upper atmosphere instead,” Gray writes in a detailed update showing everything they know about the rocket and where it’s going.
Space junk is a serious concern, but as Gray points out, it’s in low-Earth orbit that we should focus our concern. Still, this event is part of a trend of not considering what might happen to rockets once they have deployed their payload.
[H/T: Space.com]
