Every five years, rangers working with the National Trust return to the remote Farne Islands to stick their hands in strange burrows, track inch-long footprints, and sniff around for fresh guano belonging to the islands’ puffin residents. The work this year was no different but for one exception: They haven’t found a single egg.

Historically, puffins and their pufflings have thrived on the eight islands because of the protection it offers them. Initial figures for 2018, however, tell a different story. This year, the number of breeding pairs has declined by 12 percent since its last count of 39,962, and it has researchers fearing for the survival of the species. Predictions suggest that within the next 50 to 100 years, the birds will have completely died out on the Farne Islands.  

Conservationists blame a combination of climate change, overfishing, plastic pollution, and extreme weather for the bird’s slow disappearance.

“Initial findings are concerning,” said Tom Hendry, a National Trust ranger. “Numbers could be down due to stormy or wetter weather as well as changes in the sand eel population, which is one of their staple foods. If the final results reflect this drop, this will increase the need for us to monitor these beautiful clowns of the sea more frequently."

Puffin numbers on the islands have been recorded since 1939. Since a first count of just 3,000 pairs, populations have risen steadily until 2008 when they declined by more than a third (from more than 55,000 to less than 37,000). Population declines vary from island to island, with the largest experiencing a 42 percent decline and the smaller down 33 percent. So far, 19,718 breeding pairs have been recorded on four of the eight islands surveyed – 2,686 less than the last record.

Atlantic puffins were listed as “vulnerable” in 2015 by the International Union of the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) when global populations dropped. The birds are also on the British Trust for Ornithology’s Red List for species of conservation concern in the UK.

Puffins are notoriously difficult to monitor, hence the five-year survey gap. Researchers live full-time between March and December on these islands and record populations by staking out 30 plots on each of them. These grids help researchers scope out the best locations and get a sample of the different habitats.

Growing to just under one foot tall, puffins mate for life and return to the islands each year to breed. The full census will be announced in October.