Nature
PUBLISHED
The return of El Niño this year is almost certain, and it could emerge as early as the next few weeks ahead. Buckle up, it could be a big one.
The rest of this article is behind a paywall. Please sign in or subscribe to access the full content.The latest update from the World Meteorological Society (WMO), published April 21, states that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are rising rapidly, pointing towards a likely return of El Niño conditions as early as May–July 2026.
The WMO hesitates to use the term “super El Niño” as it isn’t strictly scientific, but all signs are suggesting this event will be punchy. Their forecast models suggest this will be a “strong event,” though they added it's still relatively early in the season and they’ll have a better idea as the year progresses.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Niño, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO, said in a statement.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event – but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he says.
While it's reassuring to get confirmation, this news isn’t exactly unexpected. Over the past few months, many other major meteorological organizations, including NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, have suggested the return of El Niño in 2026 is looking increasingly likely.
What Is El Niño?
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring climate cycle driven by fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric pressure across the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. These conditions have a knock-on effect that is felt across the globe, influencing everything from rainfall to droughts, tropical cyclones, heatwaves, and more.
The cycle shifts between three phases: El Niño (the warm phase), La Niña (its cooler counterpart), and a neutral state. The world has only just left a La Niña state and entered ENSO-neutral conditions, marked by a return to near-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Now that temperatures are rising here, it looks highly likely that the planet is swinging back towards El Niño conditions in the months ahead.
El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years, lasting around nine to 12 months. However, recent years have bucked this trend, with the most recent El Niño event unfolding during the 2023-2024 season.
How Will El Niño 2026 Effect The World?
If and when El Niño hits in 2026, it will bring profound changes to the climate and weather patterns across the world. The WMO says the May–July 2026 season will likely bring above-normal land surface temperatures "nearly everywhere". The impact will be especially harsh in southern North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, as well as Europe and North Africa. Rainfall will also be affected, although there will be strong regional variations.
This increase in temperature could be a critical ingredient in making 2026 one of the hottest years in recorded history. El Niño can raise global temperatures by up to ~0.2°C, increasing the chances of record-breaking warmth, as well as droughts, wildfires, and other extreme weather events.
Even with La Niña's cooling influence, 2025 still ranked among one of the warmest years on record. Now that the warming El Niño effect is likely to be back, it would be a safe bet that 2026 will rank as yet another exceptionally warm year.
