Roleplaying The End Of The World: Can "Playing Pandemic" Help Prevent The Apocalypse? Real Simulation Exercises Suggest Yes, It Can

It was no doubt with some relief, then, that on May 5, 2023, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that COVID-19 no longer constituted an international public health emergency. The virus, SARS-CoV-2, is still circulating, but thanks to a global effort to reduce its spread while a vaccine was pieced together, COVID-19 did not succeed in ending human civilization.

So, job done then, eh? World saved and the WHO tucked up sleeping soundly at night. If only.

The perpetual propagation of pathogens

In the time that “COVID” has become common parlance we’ve been battling bird flu, mpox, dengue, and Oropouche, just to name a few. Then there’s Disease X, the name given to an unknown pathogen set to be the next novel, unknown zoonotic outbreak with pandemic potential.

Pathogens don’t sleep and therefore the WHO can’t afford to sit and wait for the next big thing. So, how can you prepare for a pathogen you don’t know is coming? Welcome to the world of pandemic-prep wargames.

Simulating the end of the world

Much like the Kriegsspiel of the 19th century Prussian Army that saw generals pushing soldiers across a map to perfect battlefield tactics, infectious disease centers across the globe engage in strategy simulations intended to fine tune the response of not just one country, but the global community, to a novel disease outbreak. They call them “simulation exercises”.

By working through the scenario together, countries and partners can identify both strengths and areas that need improvement.

The World Health Organization

“Pandemic preparedness is a core priority of WHO’s work on health emergencies,” said a representative of the WHO to IFLScience. “Simulation exercises play a critical role in this effort as they allow WHO, countries and partners to test how systems perform under real-life conditions.”

Each simulation invites WHO Member States and partner organizations to participate, with simulation exercises taking place several times a year. 

The goal is to stress-test different aspects of pandemic preparedness and help countries improve their decision making, coordination, and rapid response rate in the face of an emerging outbreak.

In the case of Exercise Polaris II, that was a novel bacterium. It was led by a team at the WHO headquarters in Geneva who looped in regional offices from across the globe to work through the scenario together, making decisions, sharing information, and coordinating actions in real time.

Together they linked early cases of the mysterious illness to international air travel, recognizing that several infections could be traced back to flights departing from a major transport hub. From detection they progressed to activation of emergency systems, workforce planning, and cross-border coordination.

It helps raise critical questions and generate actionable lessons, which are then used to strengthen preparedness and readiness for real‑world emergencies.

The World Health Organization

“The aim of Exercise Polaris is not to reach a ’right’ outcome or assess countries against a fixed result,” said the WHO. “Rather, it is designed to simulate a realistic, fast‑moving health emergency and test how systems function under pressure.”

“By working through the scenario together, countries and partners can identify both strengths and areas that need improvement. The exercise is designed to surface practical challenges, test assumptions, and highlight where processes, coordination, or tools may not work as expected.” 

“In that sense, it helps raise critical questions and generate actionable lessons, which are then used to strengthen preparedness and readiness for real‑world emergencies.”

From roleplay to reality

So, does this stressful alternative to Risk generate any real-world results? We’ve actually already seen outcomes from the simulation exercises deployed in real life. 

That includes Polaris II, in which an early version of the Global Health Emergency Corps AI module was tested. This AI module is now being used as part of the Ebola outbreak response. 

We might not know that the next Disease X is going to be, but the WHO does have a priority list of known pathogens that could potentially spark another global pandemic. For now, it remains a “known unknown”. Something that is coming, we’re just waiting for the right genetic mutation for it to become a threat to humans.

This is why prevention forms a core pillar of pandemic planning, alongside preparedness, and response. From rethinking how we farm livestock, to the way we use certain medicines, there are many steps we can take to try and prevent the next Disease X. 

For what comes next, be thankful there’s a game for that.