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Here's What Earth Might Look Like In 100 Years — If We're Lucky

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Dave Mosher

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U.S. President Donald Trump waves as he walks on the South Lawn of the White House in WashingtonThomson Reuters

President Donald Trump on Thursday announced his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris climate accord.

"We're getting out, but we will start to negotiate to see if we can make a deal that is fair," Trump claimed during a televised briefing at the White House.

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Trump's widely denounced decision comes on the heels of the hottest year the world has seen since 1880 — when scientists first started keeping global temperature logs — and the fifth annual heat record of the past dozen years.

Overall, planet Earth has warmed 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.26 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial averages, which is dangerously close to the 2.7-degree-Fahrenheit (1.5-degree-Celsius) limit set by international policymakers for global warming. (Some argue this cutoff is arbitrary, though it could still rein in some of the most disruptive changes to human civilization.)

"There's no stopping global warming," Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist who is the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, previously told Business Insider. "Everything that's happened so far is baked into the system."

That means that even if carbon emissions were to drop to zero tomorrow, we'd still be watching human-driven climate change play out for centuries. And we all know emissions aren't going to stop. So the key thing now, Schmidt said, is to slow climate change down enough to make sure we can adapt to it as painlessly as possible.

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This is what the Earth could look like within 100 years if we succeed in curbing climate change with international agreements like the Paris climate accord (barring huge leaps in renewable energy or carbon-capture technology).

 

"I think the 1.5-degree [2.7-degree F] target is out of reach as a long-term goal," Schmidt said. He estimated that we will blow past that by about 2030.

i-think-the-15-degree-27-degree-f-target
Stephane Mahe/Reuters

 

But Schmidt is more optimistic about staying at or under 3.6 degrees F, or 2 degrees C, above preindustrial levels. That's the level of temperature rise the UN hopes to avoid.

but-schmidt-is-more-optimistic-about-sta
 Vincent Kessler/Reuters

 

Let's assume that we land somewhere between those two targets. At the end of this century, we'd be looking at a world that is on average about 3 degrees Fahrenheit above where we are now.

 

But average surface temperature alone doesn't paint a full picture of climate change. Temperature anomalies — or how much the temperature of a given area is deviating from what would be "normal" in that region — will swing wildly.

but-average-surface-temperature-alone-do
Oli Scarff/Getty
 

For example, the temperature in the Arctic Circle soared above freezing for one day in 2016 — that's extraordinarily hot for the arctic. Those types of abnormalities will start happening a lot more.

For example, the temperature in the Arctic Circle soared above freezing for one day in 2016 — that's extraordinarily hot for the arctic. Those types of abnormalities will start happening a lot more.
Bob Strong/Reuters
 

Read the original article on Business Insider. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter. Copyright 2017.

Read next on Business Insider: Pacific Island countries at risk of being swallowed by rising seas accused the US of 'abandoning' them


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