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As the United States is about to reach the grim threshold of 1 million COVID-19 deaths, the World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that around 14.9 million excess global deaths between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021 were due to the pandemic.
The estimate – with a range of 13.3 to 16.6 million people dying due to COVID or indirectly because of it – is enormous. Only four US states have more than 15 million people, so it’s as if the often deadly disease wiped their entire population off the map in just 24 months. Or if the entire populations of Belgium and Uruguay died in two years.
Excess mortality is estimated by the difference between the average number of deaths in previous years and the deaths that happened during the pandemic. The WHO estimated the direct deaths due to the disease but also the indirect deaths due to health systems being majorly disrupted by the pandemic.
“These sobering data not only point to the impact of the pandemic but also to the need for all countries to invest in more resilient health systems that can sustain essential health services during crises, including stronger health information systems,” Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General said in a press statement seen by IFLScience. “WHO is committed to working with all countries to strengthen their health information systems to generate better data for better decisions and better outcomes.”
The excess deaths are also influenced by averted deaths. Especially during the stricter phases of lockdowns, certain countries and territories that had limited spread of the virus reported fewer deaths than in previous years, due to fewer accidental deaths from work-related accidents or motor vehicle collisions.
The data shows that just 20 countries – representing approximately 50 percent of the world's population – have 80 percent of the estimated global excess mortality for the last two years. These countries are Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Italy, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, the Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, Ukraine, and the United States of America.
Moreover, 84 percent of the excess deaths are from South-East Asia, Europe, and the Americas. And 68 percent of excess deaths come from just 10 countries globally. The vast majority (81 percent) of the excess COVID-19 deaths happened in middle-income countries, with 53 percent happening in lower-middle-income countries.
“Measurement of excess mortality is an essential component to understand the impact of the pandemic. Shifts in mortality trends provide decision-makers information to guide policies to reduce mortality and effectively prevent future crises. Because of limited investments in data systems in many countries, the true extent of excess mortality often remains hidden,” said Dr Samira Asma, Assistant Director-General for Data, Analytics and Delivery at WHO. “These new estimates use the best available data and have been produced using a robust methodology and a completely transparent approach.”
The excess deaths estimate showed that males died more than women (57 percent versus 43 percent) and that most of the excess deaths are in older adults. The team stresses that excess death data is affected by population size and that the excess deaths per 100,000 people is a more objective picture of the pandemic. They also highlight that the data is not as complete as they might hope.
“Data is the foundation of our work every day to promote health, keep the world safe, and serve the vulnerable. We know where the data gaps are, and we must collectively intensify our support to countries, so that every country has the capability to track outbreaks in real-time, ensure delivery of essential health services, and safeguard population health,” said Dr Ibrahima Socé Fall, Assistant Director-General for Emergency Response.
The official number of global deaths from COVID-19 is around 6.2 million people, although it has been long suspected that those measurements undercounted millions of deaths. If the excess deaths estimate is closer to the WHO's estimate, that would make COVID-19 the third deadliest pandemic in 500 years, after the Spanish Flu and AIDS.
