If global carbon emissions don’t start to decline within the next three years, the planet will be on track for dangerous levels of climate change and the goals set for the Paris climate agreement will be unattainable. In a letter published in Nature, experts including the former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, have set out what needs to be achieved by 2020 to safeguard the planet, and how there is still hope we can beat it.
They write that even with an increase in global temperature by 1°C (1.8°F), sea ice is melting, coral is dying, and ecosystems are collapsing. While we have stopped carbon emissions from rising any further, they have plateaued while atmospheric temperatures have continued to rise, and it is now crunch time.
But it is not all doom and gloom. While the news that we may only have three years to get this under control might sound devastating in the current political climate, there are good signs that the mood has shifted. The authors say that there are procedures and policy that can be put into place to limit this warming, it just has to be done sooner rather than later.
“These goals may be idealistic at best, unrealistic at worst,” write the authors. “However, we are in the age of exponential transformation and think that such a focus will unleash ingenuity.” They go on to list where the world needs to be by 2020 to make the goal of avoiding damaging and dangerous climate change achievable.
They state that renewables will need to account for at least 30 percent of the world’s electricity supply, an increase of just 6.4 percent on 2015 levels. Building and infrastructure will need to be fully decarbonized by 2050, and heavy industry will need to increase efficiencies and cut emissions.